A Lagrangian Methodology to Quantify and Predict the Impact of Caribbean Eddies on Loop Current System Dynamics

Description: Understanding the dynamics of the western Caribbean Sea and southern part of the Yucatan Channel is critical for predicting the Loop Current System’s behavior. This project will quantify improvements in prediction skill when these Caribbean Sea observations are incorporated into forecasting models. Observations and high-resolution model simulations will provide a more detailed, objective description about the size, magnitude, and pathway of warm, circular currents (known as anticyclonic eddies) passing through the Yucatan Channel; and their relation to the anticyclonic eddies evolving inside the Gulf of Mexico.

An Altimetry Based Statistical Forecast Model for the Loop Current System

Description: This project will develop a forecast system, ForLoop, which will pull information from machine learning algorithms and 26 years of open source data on daily sea level fluctuations. ForLoop will allow users to digitize sea level or surface temperature maps to predict Loop Current and Loop Current Eddy locations; and estimate the probability that the current or an eddy will affect a specific location over a range of forecasted periods.

Development of an Unstructured-Grid Nesting Method for the Study of Loop Current Frontal Eddies

Description: Researchers will nest an unstructured grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model — a type of 3D ocean model — within the Gulf of Mexico. They will use the model to simulate energy conversion processes and the interactions between Loop Current Frontal Eddies (LCFEs) and changes in ocean floor depth. The goal is to establish an ocean forecasting system for the Gulf that is capable of an accurate one-two weeks Loop Current forecast. In addition, the team will create a 20-year satellite data archive to detect and analyze LCFE merging events that occur before eddy detachments and separations.

Lagrangian Metrics for the Identification and Prediction of Loop Current Eddy Shedding Events

Description: This project will apply physics-based concepts to develop a new methodology to identify imminent Loop Current Eddy shedding events and the dynamics that cause them. It will also assess how well existing regional models are able to detect waves, currents, tides, and other physical ocean processes that lead to eddy shedding events.

Loop Current System SSH and Subsurface Current Prediction with a Transfer Learning Approach

Description: Using 18 years of sea surface height (SSH) fields and sub-surface observations, this project will apply machine learning tools to predict Loop Current speed, vertical structure, and duration, to examine the eddy formation and shedding processes. The project aims to improve predictive capability of the location and duration of the Loop Current over a forecast period of one month; eddy shedding at two-three months; and predictive skill for Loop Current and Loop Current Eddy speed, vertical structure, and duration over a several day forecast.

Technology and Methods for Yucatan Channel Monitoring

Description: This project will design a transport monitoring system in the Yucatan Channel (YC), drawing on data collected from 19 moorings and 99 sensors between 2018 and 2019. In addition, the team will develop and test innovative mooring designs that would enable real-time data transmission to shore. The goal is to leverage the existing intensive data set to determine which YC conditions are most critical to monitor, and identify the most cost-effective way to do so.

The Loop Current and the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River System: Interactions, Variability and Modeling Requirements

Description: This project will explore the interactions between the Loop Current System and Mississippi-Atchafalaya River System discharge, in terms of seasonal changes, Loop Current position, and the presence of small eddies that range in size from 1 to 10 kilometers. It will also examine the physical processes that drive horizontal and vertical mixing in the portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico where the water is deeper than 150-200 meters.

Cross-channel differences in bottom pressure and acoustic round-trip travel time from PIES instruments in Yucatan Channel, Mexico, from 2018-07-30 to 2020-07-30

Gridded density and geopotential height differences across Yucatan Channel, Mexico from moored instruments, 2018-07-28 to 2021-09-21

Gridded vertical sections of the horizontal velocity field from the CANEK mooring array in the Yucatan Channel, from 2012-07-10 to 2020-09-17

Ocean volume transport from mooring observations across Yucatan Channel, Mexico from 2018-07-31 to 2020-07-31

Forecasting 3D velocity structures of the Loop Current system in the Gulf of Mexico using a deep learning model