Abstract:

The overall objective of this project is to predict the recovery trajectory of cetacean populations following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill. To do this, we brought together information generated under the other CARMMHA projects and the latest information from other studies and used them as inputs to population dynamics models constructed for each population of interest. Uncertainty on inputs was propagated through the models; together with sensitivity analyses, this gives a robust assessment of uncertainty in the predictions. We initially validated our predictions for short-term recovery against independent population estimates, and we then included these estimates in the population model to further enhance the reliability of long-term predictions. The dataset includes the population model source code, the parameters used in the model runs, and any random number seeds used during the model runs. The dataset is a snapshot of the model as of 2022-09-06; updated versions are available at the author’s Github repository: https://github.com/TiagoAMarques/CARMMHApapersSI%5C. These results support the publications Schwacke et al (2022), Thomas et al (2022), and Marques et al (submitted to Marine Ecology Progress Series). The bottlenose dolphin reproductive health assessment field data utilized in the publications are available in datasets R5.x274.000:0001 (2016, doi: 10.7266/N7H41PTV), R5.x274.000:0009 (2017, doi: 10.7266/n7-76aj-rp39), and R6.x809.000:0009 (2018, doi: 10.7266/n7-sv57-1h12). The model parameters ascertained through expert elicitation are available in R6.x809.000:0013 (doi: 10.7266/n7-9hsz-sn16). Schwacke, L. H., Marques, T.A., Thomas, L., Booth, C. G., Balmer, B. C., Barratclough, A., Colegrove, K., De Guise, S., Garrison,L. P., Gomez, F. M., Morey, J. S., Mullin, K. D., Quigley,B. M., Rosel, P. E., Rowles, T. K., Takeshita, R.,Townsend, F. I., Speakman, T. R., Wells, R. S., Zolman, E. S., & Smith, C. R. (2022). Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species. Conservation Biology, 36, e13878.https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13878. Thomas, L., Marques, T. A., Booth, C., Takeshita, R., & Schwacke, L. H. (2022). Model predicts catastrophic decline of common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population under proposed land restoration project in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Marine Mammal Science,1–11. https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12930THOMASET AL.11.

Suggested Citation:

Marques, Tiago. 2022. Updated northern Gulf of Mexico cetacean population recovery trajectories following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Distributed by: GRIIDC, Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi. doi:10.7266/n7-rmv4-qx46

Publications:

Schwacke, L. H., Marques, T. A., Thomas, L., Booth, C. G., Balmer, B. C., Barratclough, A., Colegrove, K., De Guise, S., Garrison, L. P., Gomez, F. M., Morey, J. S., Mullin, K. D., Quigley, B. M., Rosel, P. E., Rowles, T. K., Takeshita, R., Townsend, F. I., Speakman, T. R., Wells, R. S., … Smith, C. R. (2022). Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long‐lived species. Conservation Biology, 36(4). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13878

Thomas, L., Marques, T. A., Booth, C., Takeshita, R., & Schwacke, L. H. (2022). Model predicts catastrophic decline of common bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops truncatus ) population under proposed land restoration project in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, <scp>USA</scp>. Marine Mammal Science, 38(4), 1654–1664. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12930

Purpose:

The overall objective of this project is to predict the recovery trajectory of cetacean populations following the DWH spill.

Data Parameters and Units:

Expected number of individuals, expected number of individuals within the oil spill, Siler model parameters (a1, a2, a3, b1, b3), baseline survival, CatalogID [individual dolphin ID], FB [individual dolphin’s alphanumeric identifier], AgeCap [age of dolphin when captured], Marked [1 = identifying scars present, 0 = no], probability of being marked in age classes 0:60.

Methods:

See documentation in .zip file for methodology.

Individual Files: